Weekly Commentary

Later this week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first (of three) estimate of fourth quarter US GDP. The data leading up to this announcement has been relatively clear in signaling that the top-line growth rate is in the range of

Global economic developments take the stage this week, with China having already grabbed the spotlight by announcing 2022 economic growth of 2.9% -- better than expected but well below the long-standing Chinese growth target of 6%. In addition to

All eyes this week fall on the inflation numbers for December and how they will answer the many questions about the path forward for the Fed and the US economy. The week started with an important positive from the New York Fed, which reported a

The new year begins with China fully opening for business after dropping zero-Covid policies, Europe flush with energy reserves and the US economy growing at an approximate 3.5% pace. Nevertheless, anxious questions about all three critical regions

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with a more than side-long glance at economic activity in the United States and China. Wednesday’s announcement of interest rate changes – a 50 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate is widely expected—and

The US economy continues its steadfast march to the end of the year, with few signs of weakening consumer spending and a still strong labor market. The Federal Reserve is inclined to keep raising interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, as indicated

There is mounting evidence that global inflation has peaked. Decelerating price increases or outright price declines are primarily witnessed in wholesale/producer prices which may account for as much as half of the unusually sharp rise in inflation

Another Fed rate increase in December, following on the recent 75 bps increases, which have probably yet to have a full impact on the economy, may be sufficient to establish a different pace of growth – and a different, lower outlook for inflation—as

The modest reversal in consumer price trends signaled by last week’s CPI numbers was welcome – but should not be assigned undue importance.  Inflation is still “too high” from the Federal Reserve’s perspective and, even more problematic,

With the latest -- and much-foreshadowed -- 75bps hike in the Fed Funds rate announced last week, interest rates have conclusively entered the realm of "constrictive," i.e., serving to reduce economic growth by depressing final demand. This week's