Past Morning Notes

January 4, 2024 Good morning, Following a blistering last two months of the year, with oversold sirens blaring, investors of all kinds were bracing for a correction to welcome in the new year. Perhaps that’s why the -1.36% decline on the

January 2, 2024 Good morning, I hope your holidays were special and that your Happiest New Year is ahead for you.The stock and bond markets ended 2023 with 9 straight weeks of a rally driven primarily by the Fed’s pivot from a tightening to a

December 21, 2023 Good morning, The equity market threw investors a curve ball yesterday. With only 90 minutes left in the trading day, the S&P 500 was predictably up +0.5% with bonds enjoying another intra-day rally of their own. And then,

December 18, 2023 Good morning, Markets have moved quickly from pricing in the bearish narrative “higher for longer” during the three months of August through October, to pricing in the bullish narrative “early and often” over the past two

December 14, 2023 Good morning, Color me wrong! On Monday, I commented that the market set-up going into yesterday’s FOMC meeting was likely bearish in the belief that participants could not contort an unchanged Fed statement any further than

December 10, 2023 Good morning, Last Friday morning’s big event of the week – November employment data – was mixed and had something for both bulls and bears to argue with. Financial journalists thought last week’s news was good for

December 4, 2023 Good morning, Much of the recent rally can be attributed to the belief by investors that inflation is moderating with interest rates coming down in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. And by rate cuts, the market means a cut in

November 30, 2023 Good morning, Let us pause for a moment this morning and bid a fond farewell to November. Thank you Nov-ie, and well done! Recall how it felt limping into this glorious month – leaves were turning, the scent of fall

November 27, 2023 Good morning, I hope you had a delightful Thanksgiving break. As U.S. trading desks go back to full staffing this morning, markets look indifferent to start the week. Equities and bonds changed little overnight, continuing

November 20, 2023 Good morning, Markets are quiet this morning as we begin the holiday-shortened week in the U.S. The one exception is the dollar, which remains on the defensive – another market (aside from stocks and bonds) prone to