Past Morning Notes

February 12, 2024 Good morning, Futures are largely unchanged this morning as we start the second week of February. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up +1.37% last week and is trading at fresh all-time highs. It has broken through the round

February 8, 2024 Good morning, So far this week, markets have successfully navigated two bond auctions and more Fedspeak without any hesitation. Except for small caps (down -0.63% this week), the rest of the major equity indexes have steadily

February 5, 2024 Good morning, Last week, we learned that the U.S. economy is stronger than the market had believed, and that the Fed is not in any hurry to lower rates. Stock and bond market volatility picked up, not unexpectedly. It’s been a

January 29, 2024 Good morning, For all the daily headlines of new all-time highs for U.S. stocks lately, you wouldn’t be faulted for thinking that the stock market was on fire and that you were missing out. For all the bluster, the S&P 500

January 25, 2024 Good morning, Yesterday’s market action may have been a forerunner of market action for weeks ahead. Treasuries fell (lower price/higher yield) after U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index data surprised to the upside, adding to

January 22, 2024 Good morning, Last week’s economic data eased some recession concerns, eased market expectations for March rate cuts, and, on Friday, decoupled the direction of equity prices from the direction of bond prices for the first time

January 18, 2024 Good morning, In December, we talked about a battle between narratives that is developing early this year. That battle between the bond market investors, pricing in rate cuts at every Fed meeting this year beginning in March,

January 16, 2024 Good morning, For the first two weeks of the year, stock and bond market prices have moved sideways and traders are still hunting for that elusive 2024 investment theme – apart from the conviction that central banks are going

January 11, 2023 Good morning, The equity market has worked steadily higher so far this week, erasing much of last week’s decline. The S&P 500 Index is sitting right on top of its all-time high. Volatility is off its peak and things have

January 8, 2024 Good morning, The first week of the year was a down one for stocks, bonds, oil, and gold. Only the dollar and volatility moved higher. The S&P 500 Index was off -1.52% for the first down week since October. Yikes, that’s a