Past Morning Notes

March 18, 2024 Good morning, Stocks and bonds had a bumpy week following stronger CPI/PPI inflation data, and the corresponding expectation re-set by the bond market around inflation and future Fed decisions. For stocks, it was another week of

March 14, 2024 Good morning, I must admit that my description of recent market behavior as “sideways” and corrective looks a little specious when the market was setting marginal new highs just two days ago. Momentum has slowed, however. In fact,

March 11, 2024 Good morning, Last week, we heard from Fed Chair Powell reiterating his patient stance in front of Congress, noting that while rate cuts are expected later this year, additional evidence of disinflationary trends is necessary

March 7, 2024 Good morning, There isn’t much to add this morning to Monday’s Morning Note. Chair Powell updated the markets with his forward Fed view yesterday and provided no surprises as usual. The lack of any meaningful market move suggests

March 4, 2024 Good morning, The equity market bonfire continued last week, although at a less torrid pace. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up +.95% on the week, with Friday’s +.80% move constituting the bulk of the week’s move. For all the

March 1, 2024 Good morning, Following a torrid first 3 weeks of February, things have simmered down so far this week in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Remember, sideways price action is corrective behavior following steep ascents

February 26, 2024 Good morning, Nvidia helped propel the tech-heavy equity indices to modest new all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained +1.66% on the week. The equity market melt-up, led by large cap tech companies,

February 22, 2024 Good morning, Stocks traded down for 6 of yesterday’s 6.5 hour trading session on concerns that Nvidia’s quarterly results (announced after the close) would fall short of impossibly high expectations. That and the latest

February 20, 2024 Good morning, I hope you had a nice extended weekend. Although it feels like ancient history already, last week brought us higher and stickier inflation data, which translated to higher yields (lower bond prices). Stock prices

February 15, 2023 Good morning, Recall late last year’s concern that the bond market had rallied, perhaps too much, and priced in Fed rate cuts all year long beginning in March. Leading the concerned camp was the Federal Reserve itself. Tuesday