February 16, 2024 - Data released on Tuesday showed that consumer prices increased by 3.1% in January from a year earlier.[1] Though a decrease from December’s 3.4% number, January’s reading was above the economists’ consensus projection of
Blog Posts - Deutsch
Quarterly Update: A Soft Landing into a Hard World
January 12, 2024 - I suspect few will mourn the end of 2023. The year that started with deep concerns over the economy and ended with geopolitical turmoil saw few happy headlines. Despite the turmoil, the US economy had a surprisingly strong year,
New Cycles
By Avi Deutsch December 7, 2023 - Occasionally, economic periods coincide with the annual rhythm of life, and this December appears to mark one of those instances. A feeling of transition is in the air, marked by cooling inflation, a loosening
Quarterly Update: Investors Finally Start Believing the Fed
October 6, 2023 - After a decade and a half of ultra-expansionary monetary policy, it’s perhaps not surprising that investors scoffed at the idea that interest rates may not return to the near-zero level we’ve gotten accustomed to. A recency bias
Market Note: What is a Natural Interest Rate Anyway?
By Avi Deutsch September 14, 2023 Summary of Key Points: _________________________________________ Over 18 months into this tightening cycle, and with headline inflation down to 3.2% as of July, many are wondering when the Fed funds
Quarterly Update: Jerome Powell’s Soft Landing
By Avi Deutsch July 14, 2023 - Jerome Powell’s (“JP”) biography should make for a fascinating read. The Fed chairman, who was nominated by Donald Trump and is the first non-economist to serve since 1981 has become one of the most powerful figures
Chicken
By Avi Deutsch May 11, 2023 - Two games of chicken are unfolding in the U.S. economy, the one between investors and the Federal Reserve, and the other between Democrats and Republicans in Washington D.C. Despite the Fed’s recent
Quarterly Update: A Wobbly Tight Rope
April 14, 2023 - The Fed’s mandate to guide the US economy through monetary policy is often likened to steering a cargo freighter, though a Rube Goldberg machine may be a more apt analogy. Between the Fed and the US economy stand a dizzying array of
Unforced Errors
By Avi Deutsch March 17, 2023 - The financial infrastructure that enables the modern economy is a work of wonder. A global machinery of banks, brokerage firms, investment banks, stock exchanges, fund managers, and insurance companies hums in the
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Failure
March 10, 2023 - Today’s news about Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) took everyone by surprise. In the span of just a few hours, the country’s 16th-largest bank went into FDIC receivership. Most of you will not have heard of SVB prior to today — they mostly
