History tells us that markets don’t find a bottom until investors begin to anticipate a combination of rate cuts due to softening inflation, leading indicators point to improved growth, and valuations price a bear case scenario. We believe there needs to be a Fed pause before we get any kind of pivot in policy where rate cuts remain a distant reality and most leading indicators are pointing to slowing growth ahead. The Investment Office believes there is a “whack a mole” dynamic to inflation calculations as the goods side of the economy broadly begins to decline while the consumer side of the equation (~70% of US GDP) continues to show inflationary pressures. The Investment Office is also actively monitoring fixed income liquidity conditions which we believe are generally considered by many participants as poor. On the wealth planning front, there are some wealth planning items that are still actionable as we approach the end of the year. These items include required minimum distributions (RMDs), gifting, medicare and donations.
Click Here to Read the October 31, 2022, Investment Commentary
Click Here to Read the October 31, 2022, Wealth Planning Commentary
