January 2, 2024
Good morning,
I hope your holidays were special and that your Happiest New Year is ahead for you.
The stock and bond markets ended 2023 with 9 straight weeks of a rally driven primarily by the Fed’s pivot from a tightening to a neutral bias. The markets have translated the Fed’s mid-December shift into 6-7 rate cuts beginning as soon as March. Since then, several FOMC members have walked back the Fed chair’s comments, asserting that rate cuts aren’t imminent. It’s reasonable to expect the Dec meeting minutes, due out tomorrow, to reinforce their message.
The S&P 500 Index rallied +16% over the last two months to finish the year up +26%. That is quite a rally into a new year where consensus among economists shows a mere +1.3% expansion with a 50% probability of recession. Have markets gotten ahead of themselves? Given the record overbought condition, a correction to start the year is more likely than not.
That said, first corrections following strong rallies are typically not deep or long lasting. Resolving the markets expectations for rate cuts against the Fed’s expectations will probably lead to elevated volatility for the first quarter starting today.
Be well,
Mike
Disclosures
Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission. This material is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. It does not constitute a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor, and should not provide the basis for any investment decision. Please consult with your Advisor prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained herein was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Robertson Stephens does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Information, views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation, are based on the information available at the time, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Robertson Stephens assumes no duty to update this information. Unless otherwise noted, any individual opinions presented are those of the author and not necessarily those of Robertson Stephens. Performance may be compared to several indices. Indices are unmanaged and reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. A complete list of Robertson Stephens Investment Office recommendations over the previous 12 months is available upon request. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking performance objectives, targets or estimates are not guaranteed and may not be achieved. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Alternative investments are speculative and involve substantial risks including significant loss of principal, high illiquidity, long time horizons, uneven growth rates, high fees, onerous tax consequences, limited transparency and limited regulation. Alternative investments are not suitable for all investors and are only available to qualified investors. Please refer to the private placement memorandum for a complete listing and description of terms and risks. This material is an investment advisory publication intended for investment advisory clients and prospective clients only. Robertson Stephens only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration. A copy of Robertson Stephens’ current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses, among other things, Robertson Stephens’ business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. © 2024 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC. All rights reserved. Robertson Stephens is a registered trademark of Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC in the United States and elsewhere.
