The surprising 1.1% first estimate of Q1 US growth, released last Friday, provides the context for scrutinizing the economic activity numbers for April being released this week — and for evaluating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates on Wednesday. It seems highly likely at this point, especially with the resolution of the First Republic saga, that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate another 25 bps and signal some willingness to pause and watch decelerating payroll growth and possible economic slowdown for an impact on still-too-high inflation. The market widely expects the Fed to raise rates 25bps in May, and then has 1-3 cuts priced in by year end. The peak rate for this cycle is expected to be 5.25%, with a target rate of 4.5%-5.0% by year end. Last week, U.S. Treasury yields modestly decreased (price up; yield down) amid volatility ahead of the following week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. Concerns increased about the approaching debt ceiling date and negotiations for raising it. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the change in mortgage rate fees. On May 1st, the the loan-level price adjustment (LLPA) rules were changed and may negatively impact borrowers with high credit scores and benefit those with low credit scores.
Click Here to Read the May 1, 2023, Economic Commentary
Click Here to Read the May 1, 2023, Investment Commentary
Click Here to Read the May 1, 2023, Wealth Planning Commentary
