Three weeks into the fourth quarter of 2022, questions are mounting as to whether the US economy can continue to grow at the estimated 2% annual pace likely to be reported for the third quarter, on October 27. As yet, inflation has not responded to the changing economic environment. It is widely assumed to be only a matter of time before it does, however another 75 bps point increase in the Fed Funds rate in November will help speed that adjustment, which nevertheless will be concentrated in the first half of 2023. Investors have swiftly moved to upgrade their expectation of future tightening from the Federal Reserve, with the 75bp hike at the November meeting now fully priced in for the first time. In addition, markets placed a growing probability the Fed continues at a 75bps pace in December rather than slowing down. Investors should also pay attention to third quarter earnings season and guidance which kicked off last week. We believe equities in the aggregate have not priced in a material slowdown in growth and earnings. Equity investors should be prepared for an eventual bottoming process when markets begin to perceive a cooling in wage growth and employment. On the wealth planning front, the Social Security Administration announced last week that the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for benefits will be 8.7% in 2023 (greater than the 5.7% 2022 COLA adjustment), which is good news for low-income seniors in helping maintain their purchasing power. Many seniors rely on the benefit as a primary source of income. However, there may be downsides to receiving higher income for some clients.
Click Here to Read the October 17, 2022, Economic Commentary
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